In a presentation entitled “The Blockchain Scenario” at Gartner Symposium/ITexpo 2018 in Orlando, FL, David Furlonger, Distinguished VP, Analyst at Gartner discussed the key elements for the evolution of blockchain.
To help technology executives understand today’s blockchain reality and the future evolution, Furlonger shared the Gartner blockchain spectrum and discussed how blockchain will evolve until 2030.
The research firm predicts that Blockchain technology will add $176 billion in business value by 2025 and $3.1 trillion by 2030.
Furlonger said that adoption will be driven by CEOs who “want to be seen to be doing something innovative” as opposed to technology-led initiatives. According to a Gartner CIO survey, only 5% of CIOs rated Blockchain as a game-changer for their organization, far below artificial intelligence, cloud, and data and analytics.
From a research standpoint, Gartner sees five key areas:
- Blockchain provides a spectrum of opportunities, and private ledgers will struggle to achieve positive total cost of ownership within the next four years.
- Blockchain will change your operating, not necessarily your business model, over the next five years. Private ledgers can replatform enterprises and reinforce market/business centralization and monopolies.
- It will be a multi-asset economy in which enterprises need to create, monetize, transfer and accept an infinite range of tokenized assets at a microtransaction level.
- Society is doomed without trust, but our understanding of and approach to trust is now fatally flawed, and blockchain is not a panacea.
- The World Wide Ledger emerges to support a programmable economy and blockchain society.
Across all CIOs, 11% have deployed or will deploy blockchain in the next 12 months.